The Tampa Bay Rays clash with the Cleveland Guardians in Game 3 of the 2026 American League Championship Series on Thursday night. After a pivotal 3-1 victory on Tuesday, the series is tied at 1-1.

The Rays, boasting a 98-64 record, have a solid history against the Guardians, winning five of their six regular-season matchups. They hold a 44-38 record on the road this season, which includes postseason games. In contrast, the Guardians, with an 85-77 record, have found success recently, winning four of their last five games. Their home record in 2026 stands at 42-42, counting playoff appearances.

Pitching Matchup:

• Griffin Jax (Rays): 8-10, 3.53 ERA
• Gavin Williams (Guardians): 14-8, 3.76 ERA

The first pitch is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland, an earlier time due to weather concerns. The Guardians enter the game as -130 favorites on the money line, with the over/under set at 6.5 runs.

Betting Insights:

• Money Line:
  • Guardians: -130
  • Rays: +111
• Over/Under: 6.5 runs
• Run Line: Guardians -1.5 (+178)

Top Predictions from the Model:

• The model predicts the game will go Over 6.5 combined runs, with the Over hitting in six of the last ten Rays games.
• It forecasts three Rays players, including Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, and Yandy Diaz, to achieve 1.5 or more total bases.
• For the Guardians, Jose Ramirez and Chase DeLauter are expected to exceed 1.4 total bases.

In total, the model projects 7.7 combined runs, indicating that the Over is the value side in 60% of simulations. For the best insights and money-line picks, SportsLine's proven model offers comprehensive analysis and predictions.