As NFL survivor pool participants enter Week 5 of the 2026 season, avoiding the Bucs' upset over Dallas presents a challenge, particularly with several rivalry games on the schedule. Key matchups include:

• Bears at Packers (+1.5)
• Giants at Commanders (-3.5)
• 49ers at Seahawks (-3)
• Colts at Steelers (-2.5)
• Raiders at Patriots (-3.5)
• Browns at Jets (-2.5)
• Vikings at Saints (+1.5)
• Ravens at Falcons (-3) on 'Sunday Night Football'

With tight spreads across the board, many players might consider the Bengals at Dolphins (+7) and Texans at Titans (+7). However, both road favorites face significant obstacles. Cincinnati is struggling, coming off two consecutive losses, while Houston remains winless this season.

Before making any selections, the SportsLine Projection Model, which has shown impressive returns, has locked in its Week 5 survivor pool pick. This model has simulated every NFL game 10,000 times and boasts a record of 55-44 on top-rated picks since 2024. It accurately predicted the Ravens' victory over the Titans in Week 4.

In this week’s picks, the model expresses strong skepticism towards the Denver Broncos, who are 3.5-point favorites against the winless Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Despite being favored, the Broncos have struggled on the road, losing both games by double digits and scoring only 24 points combined. With Jim Harbaugh facing mounting pressure after an 0-4 start, the model projects the Chargers to potentially win 47% of the time, making the Broncos a risky choice.

Instead, the model confidently endorses a team that has not been widely selected in survivor pools, projected to win outright in 70% of simulations. Players are urged to make their selections wisely this week.