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ImportantMiami vs. Notre Dame prediction, pick, odds, spread: Hurricanes, Irish meet with CFP stakes on line

High-Stakes Clash: Notre Dame Faces Miami with Playoff Dreams on the Line

CBS Sports•
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Summary

It's been 38 years since Lou Holtz secured a defining victory at Notre Dame, and on Saturday, Marcus Freeman seeks to replicate that success against the same opponent, No. 1 Miami. This pivotal matchup in South Bend holds significant College Football Playoff (CFP) implications, marking the highest-ranked encounter between the two teams since the legendary 1988 Catholics vs. Convicts game, where the Irish clinched their most recent national championship.

The CFP selection committee currently places Miami at the top of the rankings, while Notre Dame sits at No. 11. A loss for the Irish could potentially eliminate them from playoff contention, as noted by committee chair Hunter Yurachek, who emphasized the need for a signature win against Miami.

Key Players to Watch

  • Darian Mensah leads the FBS in completion percentage (80.7%) and pass efficiency (202.7) while boasting 25 touchdown passes against just one interception.
  • Malachi Toney, Miami's standout receiver, will miss the game due to an ankle injury, impacting their offensive strategy significantly.
  • CJ Carr of Notre Dame has been stellar against unranked teams but struggles against ranked opponents, making this game crucial for his legacy.

Notable Stats

  • Notre Dame boasts a 10-1 record at home against Miami, with the last eight meetings favoring the home team.
  • Miami holds an 18-3 record on the road as the AP No. 1, but their last victory against a top-5 team on the road dates back to 2005.
  • The Irish have the least penalties in the FBS, averaging 28.9 yards per game, while Miami ranks 82nd.

Game Predictions

The betting line opened with Notre Dame as a 4.5-point favorite, now sitting at 5.5, with a total of 57.5. Given Toney's absence and Notre Dame's home advantage, the Irish are favored, but Miami's resilience makes them a tempting pick at +5.5.

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