The 2026 MLB season resumes on Thursday, July 16, with a pivotal matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. This game marks the first of the second half of the season following the All-Star Break.

The Phillies, currently holding a record of 54-43, sit just two games behind the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves, while the Mets struggle at 40-57, languishing in last place despite boasting the second-highest payroll in baseball.

On the mound, Aaron Nola (3-6, 5.75 ERA) will start for the Phillies, and the Mets will counter with Christian Scott (2-1, 3.17). First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET.

In terms of betting odds, the Phillies are favored at -136 on the money line, with the Mets at +113. The over/under for total runs stands at 9.5.

Before placing any bets, it is crucial to consider the insights from SportsLine's proven computer model, which has successfully simulated this matchup 10,000 times. The model has shown strong performance, entering the break on a 33-21 run for top-rated MLB picks.

Key predictions from the model include:

• Expecting over 9.5 combined runs based on recent trends, as the Over has hit in 66.7% of the last nine Mets games.
• Projected players to achieve 1.5 total bases or more include:
  • Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Brandon Marsh for the Phillies.
  • Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, AJ Ewing, Bo Bichette, and Carson Benge for the Mets.

The model forecasts a total of 9.9 runs, indicating the Over is likely to hit 52% of the time. For those looking to bet, the model also highlights one side of the money line as having substantial value, available on SportsLine.