The Cleveland Guardians are on a roll, having rallied from a 2-0 deficit in the ALDS, and they now face the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of the 2026 ALCS on Monday night. After winning three consecutive games, including a 2-0 victory on Saturday, the Guardians (85-77) look to continue their momentum against the well-rested, top-seeded Rays (98-64).

Cleveland, the AL Central champions, boasts a 46-37 record on the road this season, while Tampa Bay, the AL East winners, holds an impressive 57-26 home record, including the postseason. Drew Rasmussen will start for Tampa Bay, while Foster Griffin takes the mound for Cleveland.

Game Details:

• Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Fla.
• First Pitch: 8 p.m. ET
• Odds: Tampa Bay -169 (risk $169 to win $100), Over/Under 6.5 runs

Before placing any bets, it's crucial to consider insights from SportsLine's proven computer model, which has successfully simulated the game 10,000 times. The model has been on a 31-25 run on top-rated MLB money-line picks, yielding over $900 in returns for $100 players.

Key Predictions:

• The model forecasts Over 6.5 combined runs based on recent trends:
  • The Over has hit in three of the last four Cleveland games.
  • The Over stands at 6-3-1 in the past ten Rays games.
  • In games with a line under 7 runs, the Over is 15-10-3 for the Rays.

Projected Players with 1.3 or More Total Bases:

• Guardians: Jose Ramirez, Chase DeLauter, Jo Adell
• Rays: Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero, Victor Mesa Jr.

The teams are projected to combine for 7.5 total runs, giving a 57% value to the Over in simulations. For the latest money-line pick and betting advice, check out SportsLine.