The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies face off on Thursday, July 16, providing MLB bettors with a prime opportunity to capitalize on home run props. SportsLine expert Adam Thompson, a seasoned analyst with a strong track record, shares his predictions for this pivotal matchup.

Thompson, who rejoined SportsLine in 2026 after a successful tenure with the Gambling.com Group, has demonstrated his expertise across various sports, consistently achieving impressive results. In the last two MLB seasons, he has gained over 70 units, showcasing his analytical approach to betting.

Top Home Run Picks for Thursday, July 16

• Bryce Harper (Phillies) +300
• Juan Soto (Mets) +235

Bryce Harper has been on a power surge this season, hitting 20 home runs through 97 games. Despite an early exit from the Home Run Derby, Harper is eager to redeem himself. He previously homered against Christian Scott, who limited the Phillies to two runs in a 6-2 Mets victory on June 27. With an impressive OPS of .924 at Citizens Bank Park, Harper is well-positioned to add to his tally against a Mets bullpen that has allowed a league-high 13 home runs in July.

On the other hand, Juan Soto presents another strong option. He has historically performed well against Aaron Nola, accumulating five career home runs off him with a 1.142 OPS. Nola's struggle this season, marked by a 5.75 ERA and a recent trend of allowing home runs, makes Soto a candidate to shine as the Mets aim to assert themselves in the second half of the season.

Both players stand ready to make an impact as the only game on the schedule offers bettors a focused opportunity.