The Dallas Cowboys enter their Thursday night matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as heavy favorites, especially considering the Bucs' troubling record of zero wins this season. Historically, the Cowboys dominate this matchup, boasting a 13-2 record at home against Tampa Bay, which ranks as the second-best home winning percentage against any single opponent since the 1970 merger.

In the last 15 encounters, the Buccaneers have struggled, averaging just 13.2 points per game, which is the second-worst performance for a road team in a single city. The Bucs also face a daunting statistic, having gone 1-9 in their last 10 primetime games dating back to the start of the 2023 season. Adding to their woes, they will start undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels at quarterback for his first career game on the road.

Despite the Cowboys' advantages, a particular statistic should raise concern in Dallas. Historically, 10 teams that started the season 0-4 and were outscored by 21 points or fewer in those games have gone 9-1 in their subsequent Week 5 matchups. The Buccaneers now join this group, having lost all four games by a margin of seven points or fewer:

• Week 1: Bengals 33-27 over Buccaneers
• Week 2: Browns 23-19 over Buccaneers
• Week 3: Vikings 23-16 over Buccaneers
• Week 4: Packers 17-14 over Buccaneers

The combined point differential for Tampa Bay stands at just 20 points over these four games, indicating they have been competitive.

Historically, six of the previous ten teams that began 0-4 in this scenario went on to secure victories by at least a touchdown in Week 5, showcasing the potential for an upset. While the odds are stacked against the Buccaneers, the confidence gained from close losses combined with the desperation of an 0-4 start could create an opportunity for a surprising performance against the Cowboys.