As the NFL preseason begins, the Chicago Bears are brimming with expectations, particularly with Caleb Williams entering his second year under head coach Ben Johnson. In 2025, Williams threw for 3,942 yards and seven touchdowns. The Bears kick off their preseason against the Cleveland Browns on August 15, but starters, including Williams, are unlikely to see much action before the regular season opener against the Carolina Panthers on September 13.

A long-standing issue looms over the Bears: no quarterback in the franchise's history has ever surpassed 4,000 passing yards in a season, marking a 106-season drought. The next closest team is the New York Jets, with a streak of 58 seasons since Joe Namath achieved this milestone in 1967.

Oddsmakers currently set Williams’ odds at +200 to throw for at least 4,000 yards, with an Over/Under total of 3,624.5 yards and 24.5 passing touchdowns. Factors impacting his performance include:

• Injury risks due to his running style.
• Potentially playing fewer games if the Bears secure a playoff spot early.

To hit the 4,000-yard mark, Williams would need to average 235.3 yards per game over 17 games, a challenging feat given the Bears’ schedule.

Williams faced challenges in his rookie season, being sacked 68 times, but improved dramatically in 2025 with only 24 sacks, the most significant reduction in NFL history for quarterbacks starting both seasons. However, his offensive line faces changes this year, including a new center and left tackle due to injuries.

Critically, Williams must enhance his accuracy; his completion rate of 58.1% last season was the lowest for any postseason quarterback since Andrew Luck in 2012. Moreover, he lost key receiver DJ Moore to a trade with Buffalo.

Despite the challenges, Williams remains a contender for the MVP award at +1400, while his odds to lead the NFL in passing yards stand at +2000. With only four games in Bears history featuring a 400-yard passer, Williams faces a daunting task to break this long-standing record.