The 2025 Houston Texans enjoyed a remarkable season, matching their franchise record with 12 wins and achieving their best point differential at +109. Despite this success, they fell short of a third consecutive division title due to the rise of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Texans reached the Divisional Round for the third year in a row but missed out on their first AFC Championship Game appearance. As they head into 2026, questions linger about the performance of a revamped offensive line and whether C.J. Stroud can replicate his impressive rookie season.

Houston Texans 2026 Odds

• Over win total: 9.5 (-125)
• Under win total: 9.5 (+105)
• Make playoffs: -180
• Miss playoffs: +150
• Win AFC South: +115
• Win AFC: +850
• Win Super Bowl: +1700

The Texans have seen positive movement in the odds market, placing them tied for 10th in Super Bowl odds at DraftKings and keeping them favored to win the AFC South.

2025 Season Review

• Record: 12-5
• Yards per play: 5.11 (24th)
• Opponent yards per play: 4.78 (5th)
• DVOA: 18.9 (4th)

Despite a lackluster rushing attack, finishing 29th in the league, the Texans excelled at avoiding sacks and interceptions. Their defense performed well overall but struggled in goal-to-go situations.

2026 Offseason Changes

• Key Additions: David Montgomery, Braden Smith, Wyatt Teller, and Keylan Rutledge.
• Key Losses: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb.

Montgomery aims to enhance the running game after a successful tenure in Detroit, while the addition of offensive linemen is expected to bolster protection for Stroud.

2026 Schedule Highlights

• Week 6: London game against Jacksonville.
• Tough stretch: Back-to-back road games after the bye.

Betting Strategy

• Pick: Over 9.5 wins (-125)

With a favorable early schedule, the Texans are poised to potentially secure 10 wins. An elite defense should keep them competitive, even if the offense faces challenges later in the season.