The 2026 PGA Championship is reaching its climax with Round 4 set to begin on Sunday at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania. Alex Smalley has taken the lead at 6 under, following an impressive performance that included a birdie on the 18th and three additional birdies in his last four holes in Round 3. He holds a two-shot advantage over a competitive field, which includes Ludvig Aberg and Jon Rahm both at -4, along with Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele at -3. Defending champion Scottie Scheffler is currently at 1 under.

As the first tee times are scheduled for 7:40 a.m. ET, with the final group teeing off at 2:35 p.m. ET, Smalley is the favorite at +480 (risk $100 to win $480). Following him are Aberg and Rahm at +550, and McIlroy at +700.

Before placing any bets, it’s crucial to check the predictions and projected leaderboard from SportsLine’s proven computer model. This model, created by DFS pro Mike McClure, has successfully simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times, boasting a remarkable history of accuracy with 17 majors predicted correctly, including the last five Masters.

Surprising Predictions for Sunday

• Smalley, despite his lead, is projected to finish outside the top 5 due to his inexperience under pressure.
• Scottie Scheffler is expected to make a strong comeback, potentially landing in the top 5 after starting the day at T23. His current fourth-round scoring average of 67.22 makes him a valuable bet at +1600 for outright wins and +230 for top-5 finishes.

The model also identifies several longshots, including one at 40-1 odds, poised to make a remarkable run for the title. For more insights and to see the model's full picks, fans are encouraged to visit SportsLine.