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2026 Indianapolis 500 odds, predictions, time, Indy 500 starting grid: Model gives surprising picks

Surprising Picks and Predictions for the 2026 Indianapolis 500

CBS Sports•
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AI Summary

The 2026 Indianapolis 500 is set to celebrate its 110th anniversary on Sunday, with the race commencing at 12:45 p.m. ET at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. A total of 33 drivers will compete over 200 laps for the prestigious Borg-Warner Trophy. Alex Palou, the reigning champion, will start on the pole and leads the odds at +250.

Notable contenders include:

  • Pato O'Ward at +650, who has achieved back-to-back top-three finishes at this event.
  • Josef Newgarden at +1000, aiming for redemption after losing last year.
  • Helio Castroneves, a four-time winner, with odds at +3000.

Katherine Legge is making headlines for attempting "The Double," competing in both the Indy 500 and NASCAR's Coca-Cola 600, but she faces longshot odds of +30000.

The predictive model developed by Mike McClure has simulated the race 10,000 times, analyzing track history and recent performances, successfully predicting numerous NASCAR winners since 2021.

Among the model’s predictions:

  • Scott Dixon, a +1700 longshot and past winner, is highly regarded due to his extensive experience and recent performance, including a third-place finish at Long Beach.

Conversely, Conor Daly, who has had four straight top-10 finishes, is expected to struggle, barely cracking the top 10. Daly has not participated in any IndyCar Series events this year, raising concerns about his competitiveness.

The odds for the top contenders are as follows:

  • Alex Palou: +250
  • Pato O'Ward: +650
  • Conor Daly: +750
  • Scott Dixon: +1700

With a mix of seasoned veterans and new challengers, the 2026 Indianapolis 500 promises to be an exhilarating race. For those looking to place bets, the model also highlights other drivers with long odds who could surprise on race day.

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